893.00/11–2647: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 26—7:45 a.m.]
2297. Military Attaché68 has returned from Manchuria and his verbal report to Embassy depicts grimmer picture Govt prospects Manchuria during coming winter than reported in final paragraphs Embtel 2255, November 18, 3 p.m.
Critical situation south of Peiping in Paoting area has required recall to North China of units recently sent to reinforce Manchuria. American trained and equipped units from Changchun have been withdrawn to Mukden area. These units have been replaced at Changchun by Fukienese recruits who are moving up without equipment. Military Attaché doubts that there is sufficient equipment in Changchun to supply these replacements. In any event Communist forces Changchun-Kirin area are believed in sufficient strength, possibly 16 divisions, to take either city at will.
At both Changchun and Mukden situation with regard to fuel, light and water is critical. Govt commanders assert there are sufficient food supplies for garrison forces for from 3 to 6 months. Govt officials at Mukden assert there are food supplies for civil population sufficient for 30 days under siege conditions. Ward,69 however, doubts [Page 378] that there is more than 8-day supply. At Mukden there are already evidences of starvation among civil population. In addition there are large numbers of refugees from Communist areas estimated in excess of 100,000 who are inadequately clothed and constitute an added drain upon limited food supply. Similar conditions prevail at Changchun. The Peiping–Mukden railway is operating on as far as Chinchow and continues vulnerable to Communist attack. Govt military authorities Mukden state it will be necessary to launch campaign to widen area of control throughout entire length railway line in order supply troops in Mukden area during winter; this will be particularly important after port of Hulutao freezes about mid-December.
Govt commanders freely admit that sixth Communist offensive was completely successful from Communist point of view. Communists achieved two major objectives—to disrupt and destroy surface communications between Mukden and Changchun and Changchun and Kirin and to obtain grain supplies for their own use and at same time deny such supplies to the Govt and urban populations.
Central Govt commanders agree that sixth Communist offensive at least for time being has been halted but there now appears to be no question but that Communists have permanently established themselves in important areas south of the Sungari River.