711.04/1648
Memorandum by the Chief of the Division of Far Eastern Affairs (Hamilton) to the Under Secretary of State (Welles)
There is attached hereto a digest of recent incidents involving American and Japanese nationals, including military personnel, which have occurred during the last month in China.38
The recent recrudescence in China of such incidents and the anti-American agitation which has accompanied them indicates that the attitude of Japanese in China toward Americans and American interests is changing, or has already changed, for the worse. There are numerous clear indications that Japanese and other quarters in China feel, or are beginning to feel, that (a) the world situation is in fact providing Japan with a “golden opportunity” to make a more concerted attack upon foreign interests, including American interests in China, and (b) the world situation, with the restrictions it assumably exercises Upon this country’s independence of action, makes it possible to attack further American interests in China and to mistreat Americans with impunity. Whether this situation will improve or deteriorate would seem to depend in part upon two factors: (a) the failure or success of the expected German attack upon England, and (b) the attitude which this country takes toward issues and incidents in China.
Assuming that the situation in China, as regards our interests, will deteriorate, it seems clear, in the light of British experience, that attempts to temporize with the Japanese will not materially retard or prevent such deterioration. Whether or not continued firmness on our part will result in improvement is a question which only experience can determine, but there would seem to be warrant for believing that we stand to lose no more by firmness than by lack of firmness and probably stand to lose less. There is little reason to believe that formal protest to the Japanese Government alone will cause the taking by that Government of effective steps to suppress what appears to be the beginnings of anti-American agitation and anti-American acts which may have far-reaching consequences. It [Page 413] is possible, however, that some benefit might result from the making of a frank statement to the Japanese Ambassador, by the Under Secretary or other high officer in the Department, along the lines of the attached draft.
- See statement handed the Japanese Ambassador on August 9, quoted in telegram No. 297, August 9, 8 p.m., to the Ambassador in Japan, Foreign Relations, Japan, 1931–1941, vol. i, p. 862.↩