761.9411/77: Telegram
The Ambassador in France (Leahy) to the Secretary of State
[Received April 14—8 a.m.]
436. Chauvel50 called at the Embassy this afternoon in great excitement at the news of the signing of the Russo-Japanese nonaggression pact.51 He said it had come as a complete surprise to the French Foreign Office and in his opinion meant one thing: an immediate Japanese attack on Singapore or at least on the Dutch East Indies. He said that the Japanese Embassy here had for some time indicated that no Japanese move toward the south need be expected until the signing of a pact with Russia and that if such a pact were signed it would come soon after. From the Japanese and Axis point of view it was he said obviously a move to get us involved in the Pacific and to reduce our aid to Britain.
As to the Russian attitude, he was completely at a loss to explain it. It seemed quite contrary to the whole trend of Russian policy as shown by the Soviet attitude in Bulgaria, by the Russo-Yugoslav pact, the Russian announcement with respect to Hungary and the many general indications that Russia is worried at Germany’s penetration in the Balkans and threat to the Ukraine. If such is really Russia’s policy, he cannot see why she would sign a pact with Japan which is bound to weaken the British cause. His only possible explanation is that the outward Soviet attitude towards Germany’s Balkan advance has been as false as the Russian negotiations with France and Britain which were terminated with such a shock by the signing of the Russo-German pact in August 1939.52
He reiterated with much pessimism that we must expect a Japanese threat to Singapore in the very near future—“in the next fortnight”.