837.00/4007: Telegram
The Ambassador in Cuba (Welles) to the Secretary of State
[Received 3:45 a.m.]
304. For the President. My telegrams numbers 28960 and 291.61 I feel that the time has come when I must emphasize my conviction that the statement by yourself suggested in my cable No. 289 is the one remaining chance we have of persuading the Cubans to agree upon’ a solution of their problem which will offer promise of being satisfactory [to] all groups and which can in any way be regarded as satisfactory to our Government. The entire day of today has been spent by all leaders in joint conference and at the present moment an agreement is as remote as it has been at any time this week. The conference will meet again tomorrow night but all leaders have lost hope that any agreement can be reached of their own initiative. There now remain two alternatives if you decide to refrain from making our position clear by urging a common accord. The first will be a desultory revolutionary movement which will probably take a considerable time before it proves successful and which will impoverish still further the interior provinces and inevitably entail damage to American and foreign properties; the second is the displacement of the present regime by a more radical group in connivance with a portion or the whole of the Army and which will be headed by some profession agitator … or some one of the Army sergeants. In the latter event in all likelihood the government would assume completely dictatorial powers and abandon the program for the re-establishment of constitutional government as the result of national elections.
[Page 458]While the delay in reaching a solution continues the economic conditions grow steadily worse, the field grows more propitious for Communist propaganda and the breakdown of all semblance of unity or discipline in the Army is fast reaching to point where hope must soon be abandoned of using even a part of the Army again as a national military force.
You know how sincerely I believe in the policy of non-intervention in Cuba. I likewise am convinced that the Cubans can never govern themselves until they are forced to realize that they must assume their own responsibilities. But you also appreciate the psychology of the peoples of the Caribbean Republics. We have been generous and we have shown the utmost patience. The impression is fast growing that our attitude is due to fear of public opinion in Latin America and that we will countenance a complete disregard by the Cubans of any international or individual rights we may possess here. Respect for us is diminishing and the belief is rising, sedulously fostered by the radicals, that the United States can be flouted with complete impunity. That attitude in my judgment is due to the mistaken impression that our continued abstention from announcing a more definite stand than we have is caused by a policy of weakness rather than by the policy of generosity and non-interference which we have in reality pursued.
I feel very strongly that a statement of the nature suggested in my telegram No. 289 would have a decisive effect. I do not think it is too late. But if some measure of that kind is not taken I fear that the situation here will take a turn which can only be regarded as disastrous to the Cuban people themselves as well as to our national interests.