145. Memorandum From John W. Foster of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Special Assistant (Rostow)1
SUBJECT
- The Situation in Yemen and Southern Yemen
Yemen and Southern Yemen are so confusing that we thought a word might be in order. We don’t foresee any US involvement, but what’s going on does affect the general balance of forces in the area.
After a month of confused maneuvering during which the military seemed to be moving closer and closer to a coup, the situation in Southern Yemen has taken a turn for the better. The pro-Western army has put down a revolt of the extremist wing of the radical NLF, giving the NLF moderates a firmer hold on the country, and the military a fairly good grip on the government. This shift to the right will make the South Yemenis less eager to rush into the arms of the Soviets, and ought to make the regime somewhat more acceptable to the Saudis—at least, Faisal isn’t likely to intervene, and he might even bring himself to recognize the government.
[Page 295]Despite this apparent shift, there are still more than enough personal, ideological, tribal and regional rivalries to upset things easily. The basic cause of many of the problems—the lack of money—is no nearer a solution, and solving it may force the regime into political affiliations it would rather avoid.
Whatever its politics, any Southern Yemeni government will have to get foreign assistance—and from any willing source. The British are out of the picture now that aid negotiations have broken down. (The Southern Yemenis wanted $144 million in the next five years, the UK offered $3 million in the next nine months.) The government thinks the Russians are its best bet, and rumor has it that President Qahtan plans to leave for Moscow shortly. We just don’t have the money—or the interest—to buy in, and the Saudis are still too skeptical of even this latest shift to be ready to pick up the burden themselves, though that would be the ideal from our viewpoint.
Farther north in Yemen, the civil war drags on. The Republicans are winning this month, but there isn’t much chance that they—or the Royalists—will win the war. On the Republican side, the moderates are still in control, but differences with the Soviet-backed leftists could lead to an open break. In the other camp, there is a definite split between the Royalist tribes and the followers of the Royal family. An effort is underway to bring the tribal Royalists and the Republican moderates together, but there is no guarantee that it will be successful. The Egyptians have been out of the picture for six months, and the Saudis have had about all the Royalist feuding they can take. The Russians are still there, but the pace of their activities has slowed sharply since their early December rush to replace the Egyptians.
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Yemen, Cables and Memos, Vol. II, 7/64-12/68. Secret.↩