Foreign Relations of the United States, 1955–1957, Soviet Union, Eastern Mediterranean, Volume XXIV

370. Memorandum From the Director of the Office of Greek, Turkish, and Iranian Affairs (Jones) to the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern, South Asian, and African Affairs (Rountree)¹

Washington, October 27, 1957.

SUBJECT

• Turkish Elections

There are three principal possible outcomes of the Turkish elections on October 27.

1. A Democrat Party (DP) victory with a reduced majority (perhaps 400 deputies of the 610 in the new Assembly);

2. A DP victory with an increased representation (510 deputies or more);

3. A defeat of the DP through a victory of the Republican People’s Party (RPP), or the RPP and Freedom Party (FP) jointly.

The consensus is that a Democratic Party victory is probable but not certain and that the most likely outcome is a reduced Democratic majority in the Grand National Assembly. Our Embassy in Ankara has reaffirmed this estimate in its most recent cable of October 26.²

This memorandum is limited to an assessment in broad terms of how a DP victory, whether by a narrow or large majority, might affect Turkish actions, and what a defeat of the DP by the RPP, or the RPP–FP might augur.

A DP victory with a large majority would be construed as a personal victory for Menderes and his policies. In this instance, Menderes probably would continue his present foreign and domestic policy lines without significant change. On the basis of past experience, it is doubtful if he would use the prestige of such a victory to liberalize the press and assembly laws, effect significant economic reforms or make compromises that would foster a solution of the Cyprus problem.

In the case of a DP victory with a small majority, there is no reason to believe that there would be a change in the field of foreign affairs. On the domestic side, internal political struggle would be intensified and Menderes might react vindictively to the loss of prestige of a significantly reduced majority. An assessment of how he would be likely to deal with domestic problems would have to await a tally of those DP candidates elected since the degree of loyalty of the party deputies and party discipline would bear on the degree of political support within the party Menderes would receive for the continuation of present domestic policies. Even in the case of a victory with a reduced majority, Menderes may not consider himself seriously handicapped because the DP, both through earlier resignations and the selection of the present deputorial candidates, has lost a number of the outspoken critics of Menderes within the Democrat Party. Thus, even with a reduced majority, Menderes may feel that he has a larger loyal core of Democrat Party members in the new GNA and can safely press on with present policies.

A victory for the RPP, whether alone or in cooperation with the FP, would result in a difficult period of transition. During that time, positive action on major issues, domestic and foreign, might be difficult to obtain. In its campaign the RPP has promised to (1) amend the constitution and create an upper chamber in the GNA; (2) abolish repressive legislation; and (3) hold elections in May 1958 under new electoral laws. If these measures are undertaken, it may create an unsettled situation in Turkey for the immediate months ahead.

In foreign policy matters, the RPP under Inonu can be expected to continue the present Turkish Government’s pro-Western line. However, Inonu may again display the high degree of independence which has characterized his career since 1923. He may also be more intractable on the Cyprus problem. He has been critical of Menderes for advocating partition as a solution to the Cyprus question, claiming that this policy is a retreat from that of maintenance of the status quo or reversion of sovereignty to Turkey.

The economic policies of the RPP under the leadership of Inonu (or of an RPP–FP cooperation) may be expected to be conservative. Inonu will probably be prepared to consider reducing the rate of investment, initiating stabilization measures, and introducing more planning in Turkey’s economic development. There will be, however, a temptation to step up imports over the short-run to meet critical consumer shortages and solidify the government’s position with the electorate, particularly if new elections are held in May 1956 [1958] as promised.³

1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, 782.00/10–2757. Confidential. Drafted by Brewster and Jones.
2. The Embassy’s estimate was in telegram 1238, October 26. (Ibid.,782.00/ 10–2657)
3. On October 27, general elections for the Grand National Assembly were held in Turkey. Menderes’ Democratic Party received 421 seats; the Republican People’s Party, 173 seats; the Freedom Party, 4 seats; and the Republican National Party, 4 seats.