320/12–2651: Telegram
The Secretary of State to the Embassy in France
Gadel 553. Re Kashmir. As outlined Gadel 540 Dec 22, Dept has had in mind that substantive SC res when adopted wld, in view failure get agreement through mediation, contain recommendations re demilitarization and urge parties put them into effect. Such recommendations in Dept’s view might embrace Graham 12 “proposals” including those four on which still no agreement plus Dever’s demilitarization “plan” (which Dept has not seen) which we presume to be detailed development those Graham proposals which deal specifically with troop withdrawals. There might be some objection SC expressing views on all aspects of plan on grounds some too technical and shld be left to direct negots two parties, but thought has been SC res shld be rather detailed.
With this in mind, Dept believes desirable avoid placing GOI in position in which during electoral campaign it cld not avoid making public statements re Dever’s plan from which it wld be subsequently difficult withdraw. There appears to be agreement all sides including UK that new decisions by GOI highly unlikely until main campaign effort ended and most votes cast. This connection refer Gadel 528 Dec 21 and Karachi Tel 644 to Dept repeated Paris 4 to USUN reporting views Nazimuddin and Zafrullah.
Ayub’s urgings appear therefore not entirely consistent highest level GOP attitudes which according our info reveal greater concern substance SC res than with very early SC action. If Dever’s plan placed before SC at early date we inclined believe likelihood GOI acceptance wld be reduced since it wld be more difficult GOI leaders publicly reject it for election purposes and then shortly thereafter accept it if incorporated in SC res. Dept in summary doubtful that agreement Ayub’s timetable wld accrue Pak principal interest which we conceive is GOI agreement to plan of demilitarization which will bring eventual plebiscite much nearer. Dept wonders whether Ayub attaches any importance this analysis.
Re Fowler’s comments we believe pressure for SC meeting by Pak not so strong that one shld be held Jan 3, and continue prefer handling outlined Gadel 540 Dec 22. Apparent discrepancy between Fowler’s position and UK position outlined Gadel 540 Dec 22 mentioned to Belcher of Brit Emb Wash, who was frankly puzzled and promised query London.