893.51/12–847: Telegram
The Consul at Shanghai (Pilcher) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 8—8:08 a.m.]
2793. ReDeptel 2032, November 8 [28]. ConGen has been making further investigations and tentative recommendations as follows: Imports required by thousands [of bales] first quarter 89, second 150, third 250, fourth 200.
Above requirements based on mill consumption somewhat less than our August 1 estimate and some decrease in estimated collections domestic cotton due disrupted transportation following military activities recent months in important cotton area of North China. This leaves net position regarding import requirements for the season about same as calculated August 1 but some speeding up is now indicated. Marketing of domestic crop from other areas hampered by inadequate transportation and financial arrangements regarding purchasing so seasonal collections may further lag.
Shortage of required staple above ⅞ inch in which domestic crop is short emphasized need foreign imports to supplement supplies domestic cotton. This being further studied and more definite comment can be made later.
Re last question, cotton mill owners would not voluntarily use their own foreign exchange assets. If Chinese Govt attempted coercive measure: a, mill owners would probably go into black market for part of foreign exchange; b, measures would be ineffectual as far as existing private assets located in China are concerned (gold and U. S. currency) and also as far as assets located abroad are concerned without cooperation of countries in which they are located.
Sent Dept, repeated Nanking 1853.