893.00/12–2346: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 24—4 a.m.]
2165. Following from Yenan December 18:
Communist leader Chou En Lai predicted today that new and [Page 657] vigorous elements in Kuomintang, now working unnoticed underground, would rise soon to throw off the yoke of extreme right leadership. When that time comes, other democratic and left wing elements of the nation would join together to make a solid progressive front.
“The Communists will have broken the back of the Kmt military offensive in 6 months and within a year sweeping changes will be effected in China’s overall governmental and economic structure.” He said he had received no reaction either from General George C. Marshall to his recent telegram outlining the two points—abolition of the National Assembly and return of troops to January 13 status quo—on which Communists would resume Nanking negotiations.
Asked whether the Communists were decided if Gen. Marshall should remain in China, he replied “Certainly not. It is up to the United States to determine that.” He said further: (1) He believes that the Government would be unable to start an effective offensive in Manchuria this winter due to an insufficiency of reserves both inside and outside the area.
(2) The Government would concentrate on two offensive goals, the central portion of the Lunghai railway and north Kiangsu where they are suffering a bad beating. (3) The aim of the Communist military campaigns during the next few months would be to restore the January 13 positions but Yenan will not feel limited to this. Should the Government accede to Communist wishes for the resumption of parleys to form a coalition government, the Reds would be “fully prepared” to evacuate their troops from Harbin, Tsitsihar, Chefoo and elsewhere.
“We are perfectly willing to let the people rule themselves under a democratic government. We have no desire to keep troops and cities,” Chou said.
He suggested that a close watch should be kept on Shanghai this winter. When the American ships released by the end of the maritime strike begin unloading, many small and large businesses and industries would be hit.
The Communists are certain that they can secure the support of the people to win any political battle during peace time. For this reason they are eager to end civil strife.
The present conflict was not of their own choosing but was “forced upon us by the four Kmt families of Chiang, Soong, Chen and Kung who know [no?] other methods of safeguarding their enormous wealth”.
He said negotiations were in progress in both Nanking and Washington for a sizeable government purchase of munitions. The order would reach at least 200 million dollars, he said.
America would soon be isolated among the family of nations if it persists in its present China policy, he said. The nation which boasts [Page 658] so proudly of democracy was singularly unwilling to see this form of government disseminated in the Far East, Chou added, and continued that the United States should recall its own days in its struggle freedom with shame if it failed at this critical moment. The political situation remains unchanged as far as Yenan is concerned. The Communists were not surprised by the failure of the Kmt to accept their two conditions. Chou remarked wryly, however, that these conditions were hardly “preposterous” since they were identical with the agreements signed by the Government, the Communists and General Marshall last January.
The Communists have not altered the line which they have maintained during the past 11 months which, he said, was the adherence to the principles of the future democratic and constitutional government as agreed upon by the interparty conference.
Only the Kuomintang has strayed from this path, he charged, largely because the United States has given moral, financial and military backing to it.