711.94/1584
The Australian Legation to the Department of State85
undated
- 1.
- Policy to date—U. S. A. and Britain—Block Japan—Help China.
- 2.
- This policy plus presence of U. S. fleet in Pacific has kept Japan quiet outside China.
- 3.
- Position now radically changed, because of—
- (a)
- Success of Axis powers in Europe.
- (b)
- French fleet.
- (c)
- Increasing Japanese belief that U. S. unlikely let fleet fight in Far East.
- (d)
- and even may largely remove fleet from Pacific.
- 4.
- Japan heartened by above to make demands on Britain in Far East.
- 5.
- Such demands may shortly become such that Britain has to concur or find herself at war with Japan.
- 6.
- British Empire cannot successfully fight Japan plus Axis powers.
- 7.
- If British Empire has to fight, she is likely to lose all footholds and influence in Far East—Netherlands East Indies and possibly Singapore likely to go. Australia likely to assist N. E. I.—and will so find herself directly engaged with Japan.
- 8.
- United States then alone in Far East—and raw material from tropical areas in Far East denied her—or at least Japan in possession of bargaining counters that may force U. S. A. to give Japan more liberal commercial terms.
- 9.
- If U. S. A. and British Empire compromise now and negotiate together with Japan, the concessions that we can give together likely to be very considerably less than Japan will be able to take by war.
- 10.
- Japan however will have avoided risky war (having Russia in mind) and will be able to remedy shaky domestic economic position.
- 11.
- Therefore advisable that U. S. A. and Britain stick together—or suffer separately.
- 12.
- Essential for sake of bargaining power that U. S. fleet remains in Pacific meanwhile.
- 13.
- Argument that “Japan won’t keep any agreement she may make.”
- Answer: She’ll keep it for a year or so—and anyhow U. S. A. and Britain can take “commercial hostages”.
- 14.
- Stable relations with Japan would enable largely increased Australian and New Zealand forces to be employed in main theatre of war.
- Handed to the Under Secretary of State by the Australian Minister, on June 28.↩