793.94/8889: Telegram
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received July 21—10:30 a.m.]
217. 1. A foreign informant53 who is regarded as reliable and well informed today communicated to us the following information and views:
2. Informant understands, on reliable authority, that Prince Konoe’s illness is real and not feigned and that, if the present situation [Page 234] in North China continues difficult or grows worse, he will resign as Premier and be succeeded by General Sugiyama.54 When Hirota was suggested as a possibility, informant repeated that Sugiyama will follow Prince Konoe.
3. Informant confirmed the estimate of our Military Attaché that the Japanese mobilization to date has been partial as it has affected some and not all divisions and only increased somewhat the strength of units instead of raising them to war strength.
He also confirmed the estimate of our Military Attaché that only a part of a division (probably a reenforced brigade of the 6th Division) and some transport and communications troops have gone to North China from Japan proper; that about a division has gone from Chosen and that about a reenforced brigade of Japanese from the Jehol garrison of the Kwantung Army has gone. Informant believes, “on unofficial information”, that in addition to the above about a division of the Kwantung Army has gone. The Military Attaché has no knowledge of this last movement.
4. Informant characterizes the situation in North China as “negotiations progressing with armed intervention”.
5. Informant agrees with William H. Chamberlin55 that Soviet Russia will do nothing in a military way to help China due to internal effects of the purge.
6. Reports from foreign instructors with the Chinese Army showing the comparatively few divisions (five or six) of that force and Chinese troop movements and dispositions to date lead informant to believe that China does not intend to fight Japan seriously. Military Attaché agrees with informant. He also agrees that Japan wishes to avoid war but is prepared to use whatever force is necessary to insure Chinese execution of the agreement of July 11 and to give General Sung Che Yuan enough to encourage him to resist the extension of Nanking influence in North China and advance toward practical independence of the Central Government.
Repeated to Peiping.