793.94/4332: Telegram
The Consul General at Shanghai (Cunningham) to the Secretary of State
[Received February 20—8 a.m.]
84. The mask has been discarded as the last Japanese pronouncement, that is the ultimatum, has not as yet been officially communicated to the Shanghai Municipal Council which is primarily responsible for the defense of the Settlement. The Japanese officials have previously emphasized that its military activities were in defense of its nationals and the Settlement and have invariably deposited a copy of the demands made upon the Chinese with the Municipal Council. To evaluate the local status between the Japanese and Chinese upon the issuance by the Japanese of the ultimatum to the Chinese military authorities that they must evacuate the first line at 7 a.m. on the 20th, and completely evacuate to a radius of 20 kilometers by sundown on the same day: that such a demand was to be made as soon as the Japanese had a force adequate to carry on an offensive has been apparent to all for some time. Japanese [Army?] can choose its own time for the offensive and with reenforcements arriving daily it will not delay very long. It is possible that the rumor to the effect that hostilities began at Woosung at 7:40 o’clock today is correct. The attack is imminent. On the Chinese side is the 19th Route Army which is greatly encouraged by surprising but encouraging victories and the further successful defense for 22nd [day?] has given them complete confidence in the Army’s ability to resist the invaders. They are confirmed in the feeling that they are performing a patriotic service by their fellow Cantonese as well as by a very large percentage of local Chinese residents and further by the very substantial financial support which is being received from their fellow countrymen from overseas. Even the substantial local businessmen are not so strong in their protestations as they were 2 days ago that a stand is but a lead to certain defeat. So aroused are these local substantial businessmen by the impudent demands of the invader that even the businessmen are not so strong for withdrawal as they were. Therefore, I believe there will be a battle to a decision and this may occur at any moment. The Settlement is certain to suffer but to what extent cannot be anticipated. The Shanghai Municipal Council is being strongly supported by interested members of the consular body and one can hope that nothing more serious will occur south of the Soochow Creek than an occasional misdirected shell. It is a matter of great regret that though Hongkew and Yangtzepoo districts are in the Settlement they are being used by the Japanese forces for military [Page 406] purposes unconnected with the defense of the Settlement and this is such a just provocation to the Chinese that it is certain these districts will be seriously damaged notwithstanding the strong diplomatic and consular protestations to both disputants to prevent operations from being carried into the Settlement. It is not believed there is any doubt as to the immediate result of the Japanese military offensive. Even a layman must feel that the result will be in favor of the Japanese.
Repeated to the Legation [and?] Nanking.