793.94/2011: Telegram
The Minister in China (Johnson) to the Secretary of State
[Received October 8—6:34 a.m.]
724. My 721, October 7, 4 p.m.8 There is no adequate reason I know of for not proceeding to Nanking. Since I had informed my British and French colleagues that I did not expect at this time to go south, I have told them of my present changed plans and think they likewise may go south.
[Page 137]All of us agree the situation is fraught with serious potentialities, but we are rather doubtful of the effectiveness of a moderating influence at Nanking without similar influence at Tokyo which would be calculated to justify Chinese confidence hitherto placed in the League and the Kellogg Pact.
There seems to be a real danger that incidents may occur to cause a Japanese move in the Yangtze Valley. Recent telegrams from the Consul General at Nanking (being repeated to the Department) report a state there of great uneasiness, the authorities even appearing to talk of war.
A similar danger exists here in the north. In my 645, September 24, 1 p.m.,9 I informed the Department of the embarrassing situation resulting from the presence in Peiping of the Japanese Legation Guard and in Tientsin of Japanese troops. This situation is one of the reasons making it appear advisable for the Chiefs of Mission to remain here.
There is a very bad situation in the interior of Manchuria, which is now overrun by wandering Chinese soldiery the Japanese have dispersed. Should the Japanese repeat in the Yangtze Valley or elsewhere the measures they have taken in Manchuria, the danger arises that this sort of situation may spread, to everyone’s great harm.
In my opinion, pressure should be exerted in Tokyo to persuade the Japanese Government of the peril to everyone if the present conditions are allowed to continue and of the necessity for the Japanese Government to take early steps encouraging restoration in Manchuria of Chinese control and administration. If the powers and Japan allow matters to go along as they have hitherto, I am certain of more serious consequences in China.