Mr. Adams to Mr. Seward
Sir: * * * * * * * *
The continuance of the Easter holidays has had the effect of dispersing most of the official class in the country, so that little or nothing is going on in London. [Page 323] Even the reception of the decisive events in Virginia has not produced nearly the effect which it would have done had Parliament been in session. The disappointment is undisguised. One of the daily journals correctly affirms of the higher circles that few expected, and still fewer desired, the result. Nevertheless there is a growing disposition to acquiesce in it as a fact. The London Times has latterly set the key-note in that manner, and it is rapidly bringing the subordinate presses all over the kingdom, as well as its own readers, into general accord.
It remains to be seen what course the ministry will take under the new order of things. I perceive that a cabinet council is summoned for next Saturday. Then, I presume, Lord Russell will execute the intention he expressed to me, to take their opinion on the points presented in my note to him of the 7th instant, a copy of which was forwarded to you last week. It would seem as if no doubt could be entertained of the propriety of withdrawing all further countenance to those relics of the rebellion supported by British props on the high seas, But it is impossible to be confident as to the action that may be taken. There is in the cabinet a certain amount of inert sympathy with the fallen cause, which, taken in conjunction with an unwillingness to appear to confess a mistake, may prevent any movement whatever.
The sentiments entertained in consequence of the news in financial circles is of a different kind. It is partly political, in connexion with the apprehension of what may take place in Canada, but much more commercial, as the close of the war is thought to endanger the solidity of the new basis of trade, formed upon the temporary exclusion of the great American products from the markets of the world. The rapid fall which has already taken place in the value of cotton in this market, attended, as it has been, by a sympathetic depression in that of all other commodities, has already caused very heavy losses to individuals, and it is feared will bring on many more. The period when the exportation of the staples of the southern States, so far as they remain unconsumed, will be permitted, is awaited with anxiety. There is much fear that the effect of this, taken in connexion with a greatly increased demand for the government securities and a reduced import into the United States, may be to occasion a heavy drain of the precious metals, and a serious derangement of the credit system of Europe. I am rather inclined to the belief that the people who feel thus are not entirely able to give any clear reason to themselves for it. The general laws of trade regulate and graduate all such changes with a certainty and a facility which may be depended upon to prevent many of the consequences that are expected to follow from them. Moreover, this very apprehension has a tendency to inspire a caution in dealing, which in itself furnishes the best safeguard against the anticipated danger.
The only portion of this view of European affairs that directly interests the government of the United States is that connected with the management of its own finances. It is not to be disguised that much distrust is entertained of our faculty to cope successfully with the great burdens that have been imposed upon us in the course of the great conflict. Neither is the vague but sanguine and obviously exaggerated confidence expressed in many quarters in America calculated to increase the assurance of a favorable result. Action, and that, too, of a vigorous nature, is indispensable. The time can scarcely be far removed when a necessity will exist of presenting something like a broad and comprehensive policy, which, cutting off all further recourse to the hazardous expedient of expanding the indebtedness will place before the world a clear system of restora-tion of the public credit. A revival of confidence has already taken place, if we may judge by the rise of its securities from about 39, its lowest point, to 66 But this is due in a great measure to the expectation of a termination of the war-Neither will it endure unless that event should be promptly used as an opportunity [Page 324] to set on foot a distinct and indisputable reconstruction of some solid basis of finance.
Such are the views held here even by persons the most favorably disposed towards the United States. I have felt it expedient to submit them to your consideration, though not, perhaps, in the immediate line of my duty.
I have the honor to be, sir, your obedient servant,
Hon. William H. Seward, Secretary of State, Washington, D. C.