761.9411/137
The British Embassy to the Department of State 64
undated
Telegram from British Ambassador in Moscow to the Foreign Office, dated April 14th, 1941
My estimate of Russo-Japanese pact is as follows:
- 1.
- Up to Saturday night negotiations and hard bargaining were proceeding with a view to arranging a much more extensive agreement on a non-aggression basis. Russians had, between Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs’ visits, brought down their price, largely as a result of events in Europe and growing likelihood of an attack on U. S. S. R.
- 2.
- By Saturday night it appeared that Russian price was still too high and in consequence Japanese reconciled themselves to having no agreement.
- 3.
- That night either Russians or Japanese suggested the substitution of simple neutrality pact either to save Matsuoka’s face or else because Russians thought it would be valuable in the event of a German attack on U. S. S. R.
- 4.
- This pact was signed yesterday. It has never been doubted that if any agreement were reached at all, recognition of Manchukuo and Outer Mongolia would form part of any such agreement.
- 5.
- In my opinion the major significance of the whole affair is that Russia has on paper got security in the East65 in the event of German attack and has at the same time in appearance satisfied German desire for a Russian-Japanese rapprochement.
- 6.
- It is most significant and unprecedented that Stalin has gone to the station to see Matsuoka off and this playing-up to the latter’s vanity and compliment to his country indicates the lengths to which Russia would go to try and secure her eastern frontier in the light of the danger in the west.
- 7.
- In my opinion this development makes it more than ever necessary that Quo Tai-chi should travel via Moscow.