123W451/111: Telegram
The Ambassador in Cuba (Welles) to the Acting Secretary of State
[Received 2:25 p.m.]
107. Your telegram No. 54 July 7, 4 p.m. It is almost impossible at this juncture to reply with any certainty. Any change at this stage in the political negotiations no matter who replaced me would almost inevitably create a complete breakdown. The mediation negotiations will probably come to a crisis in about 2 to 3 weeks’ time. If the outcome is successful I should unquestionably remain here until the constitutional reforms to be agreed upon and the new electoral code have been passed by Congress. If the negotiations fail it would probably be wise to make the change at that time since a radically different policy would then have to be inaugurated.
The purely political work may be divided into three steps: (1st) getting the opposing factions to consent to try to find an agreement; (2nd) the negotiation of such agreement; (3rd) the carrying out of the agreement which is a process which must continue until November 1934. The first step only is accomplished while the second is underway. I feel that I should be replaced only when a definite decision is reached by me as to whether the second step can or cannot be taken.
With regard to the commercial treaty the ground work is practically completed. I expect to commence final negotiations myself about the end of this month. I do not anticipate protracted delay in reaching an agreement on the treaty unless the Department has views other than those which I myself have in mind.
My hope is that I may be relieved not later than the end of September. I am particularly anxious as you know to undertake the preparatory work for the Inter-American Conference at Montevideo next December26 and 2 months at least would be required for this task which I consider of fundamental importance.
[Page 320]In view of the above I should think therefore that it would be preferable to appoint Caffery Assistant Secretary of State until it is possible for me to leave Habana.
- See vol. iv, pp. 1 ff.↩