711.94/1517a: Telegram
The Secretary of State to the Ambassador in Japan (Grew)
172. For the Ambassador and Counselor. 1. In the light of the course of events in Europe, every government not involved in the European conflict is of course giving most serious thought to various questions presented by developments there. Each such government [Page 337] is naturally giving intensive thought to problems of its national security and to questions, both for short and for long swing, of national welfare, and general national interests. If the present German onrush is checked and the war in Europe becomes prolonged, the peoples of Europe face the prospect of a long period of economic strain with lowered purchasing power, lowered standards of living and continued disruption of normal trade. If the Allies are defeated, there will probably follow an extension of the German system of economic autarchy to most of Europe and an effort to extend that system to colonial possessions in Asia and Africa. This would result in a general lowering of standards of living and a general social deterioration; also, in a flooding of world markets with low-priced goods produced under conditions of virtually forced labor.
2. No part of the world can avoid being adversely affected by a materialization of either of such developments. It has been and is the hope of the Government of the United States that the adverse effects of the war may be kept to a minimum and may be rendered temporary not only as regards North and South America but as regards Asia by increased devotion in those areas to principles and policies which envisage and call for the lowering or removal of excessive and artificial barriers to the flow of trade and through intensive effort by governments and peoples in those areas to safeguard and promote their national interests on peaceful lines and by peaceful methods. Every country is compelled today to strengthen its machinery of national defense. The people of this country perceive that this is essential and are proceeding strenuously with plans and production which will render this country in a comparatively short time far more powerful in the military field than it is at present. This country does not harbor any designs of aggression, but it will be prepared to ward off any aggression which may be undertaken against it. No matter how the war may go in Europe, this country is very strong in resources and probably will be within a comparatively short time more powerful in a military sense and better organized economically than for many years since. The Government and people of this country firmly believe that the deterioration in the general situation brought on by present and spreading armed conflicts can be checked and can be prevented from becoming universal only through enlightened and determined resistance to such deterioration by those nations which desire and intend that principles of national sovereignty, of law, of order, and of justice shall survive and that principles of economic freedom shall prevail.
3. Various countries not yet involved in the European conflict are giving consideration to the question whether they will throw in their lot with countries such as Germany, which are committed to use of [Page 338] force for purposes of conquest and coercion, or will give adherence and support to principles and policies of a character to which the United States and a considerable number of other countries are committed. Your reports and press despatches indicate that the Japanese Government is giving intensive study to various aspects of that general question. This Government of course wishes to be informed of any significant indications which you may discern regarding the direction in which the Japanese Government’s thought is moving in this matter.
4. I have reviewed your accounts of various conversations which you have had during recent weeks with influential Japanese both in official and in non-official life. I believe that it would be helpful were you, as opportune occasion arises, to continue to have such conversations, with a view inter alia to obtaining information and to conveying, as of your own thought, such of the ideas and statements of fact as outlined above as you believe would be helpful. It is of course essential that we at all points guard against creating an impression or giving ground for any inference that the United States has modified or will modify its position of opposition to policies and courses, whether of Japan or of any other nation, which involve endeavor to achieve various positive national objectives in international relations by use of force.