711.94/1474: Telegram
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received April 17—11:30 a.m.]
256. My 227, April 2, 9 p.m. 1. I have continued to talk individually with several Japanese who, although not now in official life, have [Page 318] in the past occupied important posts in the government and for this and other reasons are in a position to know current trends of thought in the highest governmental and other influential quarters. In these most recent conversations we have covered again a great deal of old ground, the scope of which is indicated in my telegram under reference, and I therefore present hereunder those features which cover new developments.
2. One of my informants recently discussed with the Prime Minister the possibility of withdrawing the official Japanese declaration of January 1938 that Japan would no longer deal with Chiang Kai Shek,22 pointing out there could be no permanent settlement of the conflict with China with any group of Chinese from which Chiang Kai Shek was excluded. Admiral Yonai replied that the declaration had already been modified by the declaration of his predecessor that Japanese would be prepared to treat with Chiang if he abandon [ed] his alliance with the Communists.
3. All my informants are agreed that the war in Europe is progressively weakening Japanese confidence in the validity, from a purely pragmatic point of view, of the new order in East Asia conceived in terms of a self sufficient economic unit. The doctrine of economic self sufficiency was in high favor when the China conflict began and when there seemed to be no alternative to the division of the world into economic blocs such as that envisaged by the Ottawa agreement,23 but the belief is growing that, whatever might be the outcome of the war in Europe—whether a victory for the Allies or a deadlock (a conclusive victory by Germany is not envisaged by my informants as a possibility)—it is certain that there will be a universal new order to liberalize opportunities to all nations for acquiring of primary commodities and for sale of manufactured goods. The impracticability of maintaining in such eventuality a self sufficient bloc in the Far East is perceived with growing clearness.
4. One or two of my informants believe that the new tax laws which are to become effective within the next few weeks and the increasing difficulty in maintaining exports due to the high costs of raw materials will effectively moderate popular support for the China adventure. I do not fail to evaluate at this time the importance of these considerations but the fact remains that those factors which make for a modifying of Japanese objectives in China are now occupying far more attention than those factors which work towards the maintenance or enlarging of such objectives.
- Foreign Relations, Japan, 1931–1941, vol. i, p. 437.↩
- British Cmd. 4174 (1932): Imperial Economic Conference at Ottawa, 1982, Summary of Proceedings and Copies of Trade Agreements (Appendices published separately in Cmd. 4175).↩