No. 70.
Mr. Partridge to Mr. Fish.

No. 244.]

Sir: The financial and political condition of the River Plate republics has not at all improved during the last month, and thus they are occupied there with their own condition, and cannot find time for the usual talk of attempted interference in and control of their affairs by Brazil.

Although there has been no political revolution in Paraguay, (the Brazilian garrison there still propping up the supreme government,) the country has suffered from the effects of the financial difficulties in Buenos Ayres; and the Paraguayans, if the Brazilian contingent had been withdrawn from Asuncion, would undoubtedly have had a political revolution also, following on Mitre’s failure in the Argentine, and on Varela’s success in the Uruguayan republic.

The appearance in this harbor of two new Argentine iron-clads, on their way out from England, has awakened curiosity here again as to what that republic can intend to do with such unnecessary implements.

During their late revolution there, a part of their fleet revolted and pronounced in favor of Mitre, and during the rest of their war the other vessel of their navy was employed in cruising after the revolted part.

From these facts, and the condition of their treasury and debt, one [Page 109] may form a well-founded conjecture as to the real meaning of the menaces constantly made there, of war with Brazil.

Those menaces are used for electioneering purposes, and because it has been found a popular thing to threaten to put an end to alleged Brazilian influence in those countries. But when these promises or threats have aided in securing an election, the successful party probably well knows that in case of such war the consequence would be a victory for Brazil, and the blockade of their ports.

The result of that would be undoubtedly a revolution there, and the ejection from power of the party which had undertaken the war.

It seems to me, therefore, that although there may continue to be talk of war, yet the party in power in the Argentine Republic will be careful to avoid it.

Here in Brazil there is no desire for any war. The people have learned that a successful war must be a disaster financially for the empire.

I have, &c.,

JAMES R. PARTRIDGE.